Eli Lilly’s lead in the obesity race has grown. Its recent stock performance says otherwise

Eli Lilly investors have received some really good news in recent months with a notable exception of how the stock has performed. Shares of Eli Lilly entered Wednesday’s session off nearly 9% since the Oct. 30 close, the day that the drugmaker’s messy third-quarter earnings report sent the stock down 6%. Zoom out further to include that earnings hit — and over the past six months, the only Club name doing worse than Eli Lilly is Constellation Brands , slumping almost 15% and 16%, respectively. Stocks — even those that have beaten the S & P 500 in each of the past five years like Eli Lilly has — go through rough patches from time to time. What makes Lilly’s meager performance of late stand out is that during this period, the company’s standing in the fierce and lucrative obesity drug race has only gotten more formidable. In late November, hopeful challenger Amgen reported disappointing mid-stage trial results for its experimental obesity treatment known as MariTide. Then on Dec. 20, Wegovy maker Novo Nordisk — Lilly’s chief weight-loss drug rival — saw its stock get crushed on the back of weaker-than-expected data for its next-generation obesity treatment called CagriSema. Sandwiched in between those updates from peers were Eli Lilly’s own trial results on Dec. 4 , which showed its obesity drug Zepbound beat Wegovy in the first-ever head-to-head study comparing them. LLY 1Y mountain Shares of Eli Lilly over the past 12 months. The threat of competition in the fast-growing obesity market, which some on Wall Street expect to be worth $100 billion annually by the end of the decade, has loomed over Lilly even during its recent run of success. While the stock has gained about 3% since the session before Amgen’s release, why haven’t these positive developments translated to more upside? The answer, analysts say, is concern over what Eli Lilly’s upcoming fourth-quarter earnings report in early February could have in store. “In our view, recent LLY stock movements and investor conversations suggest there are questions around 4Q results and 2025 guidance,” analysts at Morgan Stanley wrote in a note to clients this week. The analysts cited how poorly shares of Amgen and Novo Nordisk have performed in the wake of their respective trial updates and contrasted that with how Eli Lilly has traded. If not for uncertainty around the results and guidance, Morgan Stanley argued that Lilly stock “would have outperformed more significantly.” For their part, analysts at JPMorgan labeled fourth-quarter dynamics “an overhang on the story” at Lilly. Both research firms lowered their combined U.S. quarterly revenue estimates for Lilly’s most important product, tirzepatide, which is sold under the name Zepbound for obesity and Mounjaro for type-2 diabetes. Morgan Stanley sees $5.3 billion in U.S. sales, down from $6 billion previously, due to recent prescription data trends. JPMorgan’s model projects a combined $5 billion in U.S. revenue. “There is already somewhat of an expectation that Tirzepatide 4Q sales could come in below consensus,” Morgan Stanley wrote. The most important takeaway, though, is that Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan are not wavering in their long-term optimism on Eli Lilly, reiterating their buy-equivalent ratings on the stock. And neither are we. We also have a buy-equivalent 1 rating on Lilly shares. Nevertheless, the reality is that, until the company reports the numbers before the bell on Feb. 6 and provides its official 2025 outlook, the stock could struggle to mount a sustained rally. Investors will likely look past a fourth-quarter miss if the 2025 outlook is encouraging. Supply of Zepbound and Mounjaro figures to be a major factor in determining Eli Lilly’s financial success this year. The influential JPMorgan Healthcare Conference — set to kick off next week in San Francisco — offers the opportunity to improve sentiment before earnings arrive. CEO David Ricks is scheduled to participate in a “fireside chat” at 5:15 p.m. ET on Tuesday. At the conference a year ago, Ricks’ comments focused more on the big picture opportunity rather than near-term financial updates, but investors still loved what he had to say, as the stock jumped to what was then a record high in the following session. The CEO has got a lot of good things to talk about this time around, too, even if the recent stock chart suggests otherwise. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long LLY. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. 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An Eli Lilly & Co. Zepbound injection pen, March 28, 2024.

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Eli Lilly investors have received some really good news in recent months with a notable exception of how the stock has performed.

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Eli Lilly’s lead in the obesity race has grown. Its recent stock performance says otherwise

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